Real talk I don’t sell picks, I sell **process**. This page is the fast lane into how I handicap, what I care about, and where you can pull the numbers yourself. If you’re here for lottery tickets, this isn’t that.
Always bet responsibly. This site is for entertainment/education. Nothing here is financial advice.
1) Mindset & edges
- Information edge: injury timing, weather, matchup nuance.
- Price edge: you beat the market number, not the book. Line shop like a maniac.
- Discipline edge: unit sizing that survives cold streaks (see my Bankroll page).
2) How lines move (and why you should care)
Openers get “shaped” by early sharp money. By Thursday, public money trickles in. Key injury reports swing totals and spreads. I track it on my Live Lines page and in the Odds & Movement notes.
Quick glossary
- CLV: closing line value. If you beat the close over time, you’re doing it right.
- Key numbers (spread): 3, 7, then 6, 10, 14. Totals cluster around 41–44 in NFL.
- Juice: -110 means you pay \$110 to win \$100. It adds up. Win rate needed at -110 ≈ 52.38%.
3) Key numbers & totals
Don’t lay -3.5 if you can lay -3 at similar price. For totals, watch weather + pace + explosive rate. I log projections in my Home predictor and publish ranges (Low/Central/High) so you can see volatility.
4) My weekly workflow
- Sun night: poke lines, spot obvious misprices.
- Mon–Tue: injury triage, first passes on totals/spreads (log on Notes).
- Wed–Thu: weather + matchup deep dive. Shortlist built.
- Fri–Sat: limits up, bet the numbers. Update Live Lines.
- Gameday: late news only. No chasing. Track results in Bankroll.
5) Tools & data links
Partner & reciprocal links
Disclaimer: Links may include affiliate tags. Use what helps your process—ignore what doesn’t.
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