Risk Calculator

Bankroll & Risk Lab

Simple Kelly Calculator

If you have an edge, Kelly gives a rational stake. Enter your est. win probability and the offered price (American odds). I usually bet a fraction of Kelly (¼ to ½) to keep variance sane.

Win Prob (%)

Odds (American)

Bankroll ($)

Kelly Fraction (0–1)

Stake: $—

Edge: — | Fair line: —

Recalculate

Download trackers & templates

Session Tracker (Sheet) duplicate to your Drive Bet Journal prompts what to log & why Live Lines board hand-enter + export CSV Odds notes movement & screenshots

Partner bankroll tools

Bankroll App Partner iOS/Android Prop Tracker Partner auto-import

My guardrails (so I don’t go broke)

• Flat units on sides/totals unless edge is crystal. Props smaller.
• No chasing. Ever. Cold streak? Lower fraction, same process.
• Shop lines. If I can’t beat the number, I pass and live to fire tomorrow.

Reminder: this is entertainment. If it stops being fun, step away and talk to someone you trust.

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