🏈

Interactive predictor with Noob scoring and market guardrail; snapped football numbers when needed.

Blog

DISCLAIMER. Projections are for entertainment/education. No guarantees. Bet responsibly.

The Amazing Tuttle FB-PSM (College or Pro)

How to Use My FB-PSM (Football Betting Predictive Scoring Model) Step-by-Step

My FB-PSM turns your football read into a repeatable process. Use it to produce a projected spread, a projected total, and a confidence range for any matchup.

Quick Start: Get Value From Any Matchup

1. Enter the matchup inputs. For each team, plug in offensive PPG, opponent defensive PPG, last regulation performance (Xt), number of lost offensive starters, and a blend factor ρ (rho) from 0–1. The model outputs Low / Central / High projections to reflect uncertainty.
2. Start with the Central projection. That’s your baseline expectation. Use the Low/High bands as guardrails for downside/upside scenarios.
3. Turn projections into edges. Subtract Central team projections for a predicted spread; add them for a projected total. Compare your numbers to the book’s line/total. If my model says Team A −2.5 and the market is Team B −1.0, that 3.5-point gap suggests potential value.
4. Stake sensibly. Edges aren’t guarantees. Flat-stake ~0.5%–1.0% of bankroll per wager, or use a very small fractional-Kelly if you’re comfortable with variance.
5. Track & review. Record your bet and where the line closed. Consistently beating the closing line is a strong sign your process is sound.
6. Iterate with new info. Late injuries, weather, or depth-chart news? Update the inputs and recheck your edge. “No bet” is a winning decision when uncertainty spikes.

Football Betting Tips That Pair Well With FB-PSM

• Bankroll before picks. Decide risk per play before you love a side. Protecting the roll lets your edge show over time.
• Shop the number. Half-points matter. A −2.5 vs −3.0 can be win vs push. Keep multiple outs and compare prices.
• Time the market. Public favorites often inflate. If your model likes a dog vs a popular team, waiting may improve your price; if you like the favorite, earlier can be better.
• Respect key numbers. 3 and 7 are crucial in football. Avoid laying through them unless the price is truly worth it.
• Use the bands. If value only appears in the High band, the edge may be thin. Prefer spots where Central still shows value and Low doesn’t kill the idea.
• News discipline. QB changes, OL injuries, extreme wind/rain—update inputs or pass. Discipline saves units.
• Limit parlays. Unless you can justify true positive correlation, straight bets (or tightly correlated SGPs) preserve EV.
• Sample-size humility. One weekend means little. Judge by closing-line value and long-term ROI.

---

Trusted Sportsbook I Personally Use

I only recommend partners I actually use. I’ve been paid out nearly $60,000 in under two years—fast and hassle-free. If you want a reliable out to pair with FB-PSM, here’s my referral link:

Join SportsBetting.ag via My Referral

Affiliate note: If you sign up using my link, I may receive a commission. It helps support my work on FB-PSM—thank you!

Responsible betting: Set limits, stick to them, and treat this like a long-term process. If you’d like help translating a specific game’s numbers into model inputs, send me the matchup and I’ll walk you through it.

? How to use — Matchup Predictor

1. Enter team names and numbers on both sides. Results update instantly.
2. Spread: shown as Team A − Team B. Total: sum of both expectations.
3. Use the small ＋ / − buttons to nudge values quickly.
4. Click Copy inputs to save your current setup as JSON.
5. If you see an inner scrollbar, edit this post and raise the iframe’s height (e.g. 1250 → 1350).
6. Troubleshoot pasting: always paste blocks in HTML view (`<>`), then hard-refresh (Ctrl+F5 / Cmd+Shift+R).